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Still early innings in the AI investment cycle

Portfolio Manager Denny Fish argues that the current artificial intelligence (AI) investment cycle is a crucial component of the technology’s “enablement” phase. Over time, he expects economic gains to become more dispersed as we transition to the “enhancement” and “end user” stages.

Denny Fish

Portfolio Manager | Research Analyst


Dec 2, 2025
5 minute watch

Key takeaways:

  • In our view, the AI buildout represents the most profound technology advancement in over a generation.
  • The AI rollout will cascade from infrastructure companies (enablers) to well-positioned software providers (enhancers), and ultimately into the broader economy, where forward-looking companies (end users) could reap significant economic benefits.
  • We believe the leading technology platforms are in a potentially existential race toward the artificial general intelligence that could revolutionize the economy and society.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

Artificial intelligence (“AI”) focused companies, including those that develop or utilize AI technologies, may face rapid product obsolescence, intense competition, and increased regulatory scrutiny. These companies often rely heavily on intellectual property, invest significantly in research and development, and depend on maintaining and growing consumer demand. Their securities may be more volatile than those of companies offering more established technologies and may be affected by risks tied to the use of AI in business operations, including legal liability or reputational harm.

Energy industries can be significantly affected by fluctuations in energy prices and supply and demand of fuels, conservation, the success of exploration projects, and tax and other government regulations.

Technology industries can be significantly affected by obsolescence of existing technology, short product cycles, falling prices and profits, competition from new market entrants, and general economic conditions. A concentrated investment in a single industry could be more volatile than the performance of less concentrated investments and the market as a whole.

Denny Fish: I started my career in the Valley in 1995, had a front row seat to the dawn of the commercial internet. Have invested through the cloud, social, mobile, generational wealth creation dynamic that we saw from the mid 2000’s through the early 2000’s. And we’re in the cusp of now probably the most profound technology shift that I’ve seen in my lifetime.

We started investing in artificial intelligence before the ChatGPT moment. And we’ve always had a consistent fundamental principle that we’ll invest in enablers, enhancers and end users. And it’s important because the way artificial intelligence is going to play out over the next 10 to 20 years is going to be a continuum across those three buckets.

We firmly believe in three principles. One is there is going to be a significant enablement part of the infrastructure for supporting artificial intelligence. We are clearly in the eye of the storm of the deployment of that.

That’s semiconductors. It’s power, it’s industrial equipment. It’s all the things that we need to do to make this happen. And then we have an equally strong view that there are going to be a number of companies, mostly technology companies, think software, think internet related companies that are going to be able to leverage the advances in artificial intelligence to actually improve their value proposition and become better businesses.

So think about companies that were really good businesses before AI and they’re going to be even better businesses with AI embedded into their organizations. And then thirdly, we have a bucket we call end users. And we firmly believe that AI will then proliferate into the broader economy. It already is. And there are going to be many companies that are leaders in adopting artificial intelligence within their respective industries that are going to be able to extend their durable competitive advantages.

If you know that artificial intelligence is existential to the upside and the downside for your business over the next decade or two, and you see a glimmer of hope for some slice of superintelligence over, you know, the next three years and artificial general intelligence over the next five. You have no incentive to slow down or blink because, you go, the only way you do that is if you’re effectively throwing in the towel.

And furthermore, when we think about how this build goes out, if we’re just talking about the enablement phase of artificial intelligence, it’s fundamentally different than the telecom boom. During the telecom boom. Everyone was laying down dark fiber. It’s very easy to lay it down. You just, you know, dig a ditch, you bury it, you got dark fiber, you get it connected.

In this instance, we have a natural governor at just how fast this data center footprint can get built. Because the lead time associated with both constructing the data centers, the labor associated with it, and most importantly the power entitlements that you need.

And so as a result, the second these shells come up, they’re 100% utilized with GPUs. And there are many people waiting for every GPU or accelerated chip that comes off of a TSMC line to be immediately deployed into these data centers. And we’ve pretty much just addressed training so far. We will continue to address training.

And we’re about to hit the knee the curve in terms of inference. And so for that reason I think this build is sustainable for the next several years. And as well a natural governor. So we don’t necessarily see a complete boom and bust cycle.

The most underappreciated aspects of investing in AI are threefold. One is most of the attention is on the digital manifestation of AI, but the physical manifestation of AI through things like robotics, automation, full self-driving, the things are going to impact our daily lives. Is also equally as large. Secondly, is truly the potential for the productivity enhancements throughout the global economy over a multi-year basis.

And then third is this idea that AI is not just, kind of, eating up the technology market opportunity, but is expanding to address both. The technology market as well as the broader services economy, which is multiples of the technology market.

The reason that AI has been the general driver for the market has been because investors are recognizing how profound this technology shift is. And, there are two aspects to that. One is just the sheer, revenue opportunity that can be created by you know, the winners that shake out, you know, in these respective markets.

But I think even more so is, if we’re right about the ultimate impacts of AI, the productivity enhancements and the margin lift that we’re going to see globally, across corporate America is going to be meaningful. And that part continues to likely be underappreciated by the market, as this permeates just about every industry on the planet.

Denny Fish

Portfolio Manager | Research Analyst


Dec 2, 2025
5 minute watch

Key takeaways:

  • In our view, the AI buildout represents the most profound technology advancement in over a generation.
  • The AI rollout will cascade from infrastructure companies (enablers) to well-positioned software providers (enhancers), and ultimately into the broader economy, where forward-looking companies (end users) could reap significant economic benefits.
  • We believe the leading technology platforms are in a potentially existential race toward the artificial general intelligence that could revolutionize the economy and society.