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Lagging Chinese money growth isn’t concerning
Money measures have surged in most major economies. Narrow money outperforms broad money as a leading indicator of economic activity. Annual growth of the official M1 measure in June was 35.9% in the US, 22.0% in Canada, 15.2% in the UK, 12.6% in the Eurozone and 12.3% in Japan.
Chinese stockbuilding cycle aligned with global upswing
The global stockbuilding (inventory) cycle is judged here to have bottomed in H1 2020, probably Q1. The cycle acted as a drag on global economic momentum in 2018-19 but is now scheduled to provide a tailwind at least through end-2021.
China: a steady early recovery but a moderation expected
In this Q&A, May Ling Wee from the China Equities Team, comments on the key issues impacting China’s recovery post COVID-19 and stock market performance year-to-date.
How is China slowly emerging from the coronavirus aftermath?
May Ling Wee, China equities portfolio manager, provides evidence that a resumption of economic activity is underfoot in China and discusses the accelerating digitisation of the economy, as well as how both companies and the government are supporting consumers and businesses.
Encouraging Chinese money data
Chinese money growth picked up further in March, supporting expectations of a strong economic bounceback during H2 2020.
What if global COVID spread mirrors China?
Major countries are now adopting radical social distancing policies, which may or may not be as effective as the lockdown in China’s Hubei province in late January.
Chinese monetary stability suggesting policy success
Chinese February money / credit numbers are hopeful, signalling stable monetary conditions despite the coronavirus shock.
Global tech: actively managing the coronavirus impact
Alison Porter, Graeme Clark and Richard Clode from the UK-based Global Technology Team assess the impact of the coronavirus on tech companies and shares their near-term views for the sector, as well as portfolio implications.
Markets fear a global coronavirus pandemic
Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK Multi-Asset Team, considers the potential impact on global economic growth as concerns grow about the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus beyond China.
Chinese money trends weak before virus hit
Chinese money and credit numbers for January were probably little affected by the coronavirus shock, which had limited economic impact until this month.
Coronavirus: does it change the outlook for Chinese equities? UK
Charlie Awdry, China equities portfolio manager, shares his views on the current coronavirus outbreak, its impact and the implications for portfolio positioning.
Has the virus shock improved monetary prospects?
The global manufacturing PMI new orders index reached a 13-month high in January but narrow money trends suggested that it was on course to peak around April and relapse into mid-year.