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Inflation — the dog that never barks
The biggest surprise last year was not only the persistent mis-forecasting of bond yields but also the persistent mis-forecasting of inflation. John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, looks at the underlying causes of why a lot of traditional economic models, assumptions and relationships do not seem to hold in this rather dystopian world in which we live.
Credit markets: tactics for the seventh inning stretch?
Bond markets seem to be frozen in time and the credit cycle, which has seemingly become stuck, could stay that way for a long time. John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, explains the reasons why, and how to set about looking for returns in the low growth, low inflation world around us.
Swap Shop and the sharing economy
John Pattullo, Co-Head of Retail Fixed Income, takes a look at the new sharing economy and its disruptive influence on economic participants. For bond investors, the ramifications are particularly interesting as the sharing economy looks set to exert deflationary forces, which lends support to the view that interest rates could stay lower for longer.