MARKET GPS
Investment Outlook 2020
What are the most pressing issues facing investors globally and how will they evolve in the year ahead? Our asset class heads provide their views on the investment themes to watch in 2020.
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Global real money growth weaker but bottoming?
A post a month ago argued that global monetary developments in early 2020 would be key for assessing economic prospects.
Chinese money trends weak before virus hit
Chinese money and credit numbers for January were probably little affected by the coronavirus shock, which had limited economic impact until this month.
Global business investment cycle moving into H1 low
The forecast here – before the coronavirus shock – that the global economy would remain weak in H1 2020 rested partly on a judgement that the business investment cycle had yet to reach bottom.
UK economic weakness masked by government spending surge
UK GDP grew by a slightly firmer than expected 1.4% in 2019 as a whole but the expenditure breakdown gives little cause for celebration.
OECD leading indicators: fade the pick-up
The OECD’s leading indicators continued to recover in December but the signal should be discounted.
Has the virus shock improved monetary prospects?
The global manufacturing PMI new orders index reached a 13-month high in January but narrow money trends suggested that it was on course to peak around April and relapse into mid-year.
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Chinese PMI softening before virus hit
Chinese recovery hopes were boosted by a rise in the Markit manufacturing PMI to a 35-month high in November.
Market GPS Investment Outlook 2020
What are the most pressing issues facing investors globally and how will they evolve in the year ahead? Our asset class heads provide their views on the investment themes to watch in 2020.
Is Euroland monetary strength also reversing?
Incoming monetary information continues to disappoint: Euroland money measures barely rose in December.
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Revised money data suggesting global recovery stall
The Fed last week released the results of its annual revision of monetary data to incorporate updated seasonal factors and a new quarterly benchmark.
Is US monetary strength reversing?
US money growth, on a range of measures, picked up significantly during H2 2019.
UK employment rise no obstacle to rate cut
UK rate cut sceptics argue that a rise of 135.000, or 0.5%, in the number of employees in the three months to November from the prior three months signals a strong labour market and will give MPC doves a reason to climb down.