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COVID-19: Research beyond the headlines
Carmel Wellso, Director of Research, examines the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets and discusses what Janus Henderson’s team of analysts from around the world are evaluating, including long-term behavioural changes.
COVID-19 Market outlook
Simon Ward, our leading Economist, discusses the latest Coronavirus data, global monetary prospects and how recent developments fit in to his long term cycle framework.
Broad money pick-up to signal medium-term inflation rise
The market / policy response to the coronavirus shock is expected here to result in a strong pick-up in global narrow money growth, signalling a robust rebound in economic activity in H2 2020 and 2021 assuming Chinese-style virus containment and a gradual loosening of control measures.
Medium-term thoughts
Nobody knows the extent and duration of the economic damage from the COVID-19 crisis. A wild guess is that global GDP will be 40% lower for six months. This would imply an income hit of 20% of annual GDP.
What if global COVID spread mirrors China?
Major countries are now adopting radical social distancing policies, which may or may not be as effective as the lockdown in China’s Hubei province in late January.
Coronavirus: Reassessing the outlook for global growth
Although the COVID-19 coronavirus could slow global GDP growth in the near term and drive market volatility, Portfolio Manager Jeremiah Buckley sees reasons to be optimistic about a rebound in 2021.
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Chinese monetary stability suggesting policy success
Chinese February money / credit numbers are hopeful, signalling stable monetary conditions despite the coronavirus shock.
UK Budget suggests rising medium-term inflation risks
The UK government and central bank have launched massive fiscal and monetary stimulus at a time of near-full employment. This is unlikely to end well.
Is global real money growth about to surge?
The baseline expectation here remains that the market / policy response to the coronavirus shock – compounded now by an oil supply shock – will result in an early and strong pick-up in global real money growth, setting the stage for a solid rebound in economic activity during H2 2020 and above-trend growth in 2021.
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Unconventional Monetary Policy in Australia: Not If, but When
Dan Siluk explains why a slowing economy and limited ability to lower interest rates may force the RBA to resort to unconventional monetary policy.
Euroland monetary reversal confirmed
Euroland money numbers for January provide further evidence that the global monetary backdrop was deteriorating before the coronavirus shock.
“Cyclical” equities – risk or opportunity?
The MSCI World cyclical sectors index last week briefly reached a new record relative to the companion defensive sectors index, seemingly ignoring a soft global economy and the negative impact of the coronavirus shock.