Quick view: hawkish BoE at odds with market?

02/08/2018

Download

The Bank of England (BoE) raised rates by 25 basis points at today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, retaining its commitment for further gradual and limited increases. Bethany Payne, Portfolio Manager, Global Bonds, shares her thoughts on the outcome of the meeting. 


The MPC unanimously decided to raise the Bank Rate to 0.75% from 0.50% as expected, while retaining the commitment to keep further increases gradual and limited.

After a disappointing start to the year when the bank kept rates on hold as it waited for better economic data, Q2 has shown signs of an improving landscape. Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) figures were revised upwards and Q2 preliminary estimates are around 0.4%. While some of the pick-up in Q2 can be attributed to transitory factors such as good weather, the royal wedding and the world cup, it is hard to dismiss the improvement in GDP against the backdrop of an economy close to full employment with inflation above the target of 2%.

The BoE Agents’ survey* update shows recruitment and retention difficulties have increased and indicators of pay growth have firmed, for both the private and public sectors, over the past year. The bank continues to expect a gradual pace of hikes — one per year — to be sufficient to keep inflation at target.


First estimate for r*
The Inflation Report also brought the BoE’s first estimate for equilibrium long-term neutral rates (r* — the level of rates which proves neither expansionary nor contractionary).

The bank’s forecast of 2-3% (in nominal terms) surprised to the upside versus market expectations of 2-2.5%. While this is slightly hawkish and would normally imply a more aggressive hiking cycle, considering the MPC expects full employment in 2020, at which point policy rates should be at neutral, shorter term headwinds and ambiguity surrounding Brexit still weigh on the economy. This means that the neutral interest rate will be below the long-term forecast until uncertainties diminish.


Markets lack faith about the number of future hikes
Market reaction has been fairly muted post the meeting; with no change in the expected timing of the next hike, which is priced for November 2019. With poor monetary growth data and core inflation, as well as the prospect of a very uncertain second half of the year, the market continues to lack faith in the number of hikes the BoE will be able to deliver.

August was also the last meeting for MPC member Ian McCafferty, who has been the most hawkish in recent years. He will be replaced by Jonathan Haskel, who appears to be more aligned with the current MPC majority, leading to a modest dovish tilt in the MPC’s composition.


*Agents’ summary of business conditions 

These are the views of the author at the time of publication and may differ from the views of other individuals/teams at Janus Henderson Investors. Any securities, funds, sectors and indices mentioned within this article do not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation to buy or sell them.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income from it can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount originally invested.

The information in this article does not qualify as an investment recommendation.

For promotional purposes.


Important information

Please read the following important information regarding funds related to this article.

Janus Henderson Horizon Total Return Bond Fund

Specific risks

  • This fund is designed to be used only as one component in several in a diversified investment portfolio. Investors should consider carefully the proportion of their portfolio invested into this fund.
  • The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which it trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations to the Fund.
  • The value of a bond or money market instrument may fall if the financial health of the issuer weakens, or the market believes it may weaken. This risk is greater the lower the credit quality of the bond.
  • Emerging markets are less established and more prone to political events than developed markets. This can mean both higher volatility and a greater risk of loss to the Fund than investing in more developed markets.
  • Changes in currency exchange rates may cause the value of your investment and any income from it to rise or fall.
  • If the Fund or a specific share class of the Fund seeks to reduce risks (such as exchange rate movements), the measures designed to do so may be ineffective, unavailable or detrimental.
  • When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different securities will be affected differently. In particular, bond values generally fall when interest rates rise. This risk is generally greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment.
  • Any security could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, increasing the risk of investment losses.
  • Callable debt securities (securities whose issuers have the right to pay off the security’s principal before the maturity date), such as ABS or MBS, can be impacted from prepayment or extension of maturity. The value of your investment may fall as a result.

Risk rating

Janus Henderson Index-Linked Bond Fund

Specific risks

  • This fund is designed to be used only as one component in several in a diversified investment portfolio. Investors should consider carefully the proportion of their portfolio invested into this fund.
  • The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which it trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations to the Fund.
  • If a Fund has a high exposure to a particular country or geographical region it carries a higher level of risk than a Fund which is more broadly diversified.
  • An issuer of a bond (or money market instrument) may become unable or unwilling to pay interest or repay capital to the Fund. If this happens or the market perceives this may happen, the value of the bond will fall.
  • The Fund may use derivatives towards the aim of achieving its investment objective. This can result in 'leverage', which can magnify an investment outcome and gains or losses to the Fund may be greater than the cost of the derivative. Derivatives also introduce other risks, in particular, that a derivative counterparty may not meet its contractual obligations.
  • If the Fund or a specific share class of the Fund seeks to reduce risks (such as exchange rate movements), the measures designed to do so may be ineffective, unavailable or detrimental.
  • When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different securities will be affected differently. In particular, bond values generally fall when interest rates rise. This risk is generally greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment.
  • Securities within the Fund could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, especially in extreme market conditions when asset prices may be falling, increasing the risk of investment losses.

Risk rating

Janus Henderson Institutional Long Dated Gilt Fund

Specific risks

  • This fund is designed to be used only as one component in several in a diversified investment portfolio. Investors should consider carefully the proportion of their portfolio invested into this fund.
  • The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which it trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations to the Fund.
  • If a Fund has a high exposure to a particular country or geographical region it carries a higher level of risk than a Fund which is more broadly diversified.
  • An issuer of a bond (or money market instrument) may become unable or unwilling to pay interest or repay capital to the Fund. If this happens or the market perceives this may happen, the value of the bond will fall.
  • The Fund may use derivatives towards the aim of achieving its investment objective. This can result in 'leverage', which can magnify an investment outcome and gains or losses to the Fund may be greater than the cost of the derivative. Derivatives also introduce other risks, in particular, that a derivative counterparty may not meet its contractual obligations.
  • If the Fund or a specific share class of the Fund seeks to reduce risks (such as exchange rate movements), the measures designed to do so may be ineffective, unavailable or detrimental.
  • When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different securities will be affected differently. In particular, bond values generally fall when interest rates rise. This risk is generally greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment.
  • Securities within the Fund could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, especially in extreme market conditions when asset prices may be falling, increasing the risk of investment losses.

Risk rating

Janus Henderson Institutional UK Gilt Fund

Specific risks

  • This fund is designed to be used only as one component in several in a diversified investment portfolio. Investors should consider carefully the proportion of their portfolio invested into this fund.
  • The Fund could lose money if a counterparty with which it trades becomes unwilling or unable to meet its obligations to the Fund.
  • If a Fund has a high exposure to a particular country or geographical region it carries a higher level of risk than a Fund which is more broadly diversified.
  • An issuer of a bond (or money market instrument) may become unable or unwilling to pay interest or repay capital to the Fund. If this happens or the market perceives this may happen, the value of the bond will fall.
  • The Fund may use derivatives towards the aim of achieving its investment objective. This can result in 'leverage', which can magnify an investment outcome and gains or losses to the Fund may be greater than the cost of the derivative. Derivatives also introduce other risks, in particular, that a derivative counterparty may not meet its contractual obligations.
  • If the Fund or a specific share class of the Fund seeks to reduce risks (such as exchange rate movements), the measures designed to do so may be ineffective, unavailable or detrimental.
  • When interest rates rise (or fall), the prices of different securities will be affected differently. In particular, bond values generally fall when interest rates rise. This risk is generally greater the longer the maturity of a bond investment.
  • Securities within the Fund could become hard to value or to sell at a desired time and price, especially in extreme market conditions when asset prices may be falling, increasing the risk of investment losses.

Risk rating

Share

Important message