Prospettive globali

Global Dividend Index

Il JHGDI è uno studio a lungo termine sull'andamento dei dividendi globali.

Janus Henderson Corporate Debt Index

L’indice Corporate Debt è la prima edizione di uno studio a lungo termine sulle tendenze dell’indebitamento delle società in tutto il mondo, sulle opportunità di investimento e sui rischi che comporta.

Prospettive Reddito Fisso

L'analisi trimestrale dei nostri team obbligazionari per aiutare i clienti ad affrontare i mercati e le opportunità future.

Prospettive azionarie

Le analisi dei nostri team azionari per aiutare i clienti ad affrontare i mercati e le opportunità future.

Global Snapshot

The Janus Henderson Global Snapshot explores the themes driving markets, the trends to watch, market returns and metrics, and the Multi-Asset Team’s outlook for regions and sectors at quarter end.

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Una previsione inflazionistica “monetarista”
Prospettive globali

Una previsione inflazionistica “monetarista”

In base alla teoria monetarista, l’incremento dell’offerta monetaria nel 2020 si tradurrà in un rimbalzo della crescita di PIL e inflazione nel biennio 2021-22, quando la velocità di circolazione si normalizzerà dopo il crollo indesiderato causato dalle restrizioni governative sull’attività economica.

Non chiamatela recessione
Prospettive globali

Non chiamatela recessione

In base ai dati mensili la “recessione” è infatti terminata ad aprile, risultando la più breve di sempre (e di gran lunga) e segnando un’eccezione rispetto alla durata tipica fissata dal NBER.

OECD leading indicators recovering, note statistical meddling
Prospettive globali

OECD leading indicators recovering, note statistical meddling

The OECD’s leading indicators are giving a recovery signal but users should be aware of a recent methodological change that has increased monthly volatility, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Industrial output rebound bullish for equity earnings
Prospettive globali

Industrial output rebound bullish for equity earnings

Unprecedented GDP falls greatly exaggerate damage to equity market earnings, which are geared to rebounding industrial output, argues Simon Ward, Economic Adviser.

Global monetary update: money growth still strong, lending slowdown to extend
Prospettive globali

Global monetary update: money growth still strong, lending slowdown to extend

Global monetary acceleration since early 2020 argues for an inflation pick-up in 2021-22 but the increase could prove temporary if money growth now normalises, argues Economic Adviser Simon Ward.

Will industrial commodity prices surge?
Prospettive globali

Will industrial commodity prices surge?

Simon Ward, Economic Adviser, argues that attempts to rebuild inventories against a backdrop of “excess” money could result in a sharp rise in commodity prices into 2021, complicating central bankers’ plans to maintain super-easy monetary policies.

Lagging Chinese money growth isn’t concerning

Lagging Chinese money growth isn’t concerning

Money measures have surged in most major economies. Narrow money outperforms broad money as a leading indicator of economic activity. Annual growth of the official M1 measure in June was 35.9% in the US, 22.0% in Canada, 15.2% in the UK, 12.6% in the Eurozone and 12.3% in Japan.

Equities / cash switching rule update
Prospettive globali

Equities / cash switching rule update

The “monetarist” equities / cash switching rule followed here recommends unhedged global equities (MSCI World index) only when the following two conditions are satisfied:
1. Six-month change in global (i.e. G7 plus E7*) real narrow money above six-month change in industrial output;
2. 12-month change in global real narrow money above slow moving average (currently at 5.6%).

Still looks like a “V”
Prospettive globali

Still looks like a “V”

The central view here remains that the global economy is staging a V-shaped recovery – or an italic V, at least – from the covid shock (not recession), with industrial output / GDP likely to regain pre-crisis levels in late 2020 / early 2021.

Bonds / equities aren’t giving different messages
Prospettive globali

Bonds / equities aren’t giving different messages

The strong rally in equities since late March contrasts with static longer-term government bond yields, causing some to argue that economic expectations in the two markets are out of sync, the suggestion being that a pessimistic bond market is smarter.

Chinese stockbuilding cycle aligned with global upswing

Chinese stockbuilding cycle aligned with global upswing

The global stockbuilding (inventory) cycle is judged here to have bottomed in H1 2020, probably Q1. The cycle acted as a drag on global economic momentum in 2018-19 but is now scheduled to provide a tailwind at least through end-2021.

Global data flow supporting “V” scenario
Prospettive globali

Global data flow supporting “V” scenario

Global six-month real money growth – on both narrow and broad definitions – is estimated to have risen to another post-WW2 high in June, based on data for the US, China, Japan, Brazil and India, which have a combined two-thirds weighting in the G7 plus E7 aggregates calculated here.